GOT/ASOIAF: Ruler Beyond The Ice

Chapter 649 - 651: Stopgap Measures

Politics is the art of compromise.

Although Aegor came from a military organization, had a reputation for never losing, and was undoubtedly a staunch hawk on the Riverlands and the Golden Company, he was never a warmonger.

Although the meme "I'm busy, all of you come at me at once" sounded thrilling, Aegor was no longer a hot-blooded youth. He would never deliberately make things harder for himself just to earn some broken achievement. He had always been clear about his place: a Hand of Daenerys who could lead troops, not a marshal who specialized in war. That alone could already be counted as success. Even if some people did not think so, "a general's glory is built on ten thousand bones" was not what he sought in life. As a man with real power, the overall interests of the realm could, to some extent, be considered his own interests. As Hand of Daenerys, he was morally responsible to the monarch and the people of Westeros, and to uphold that responsibility, he had to maintain certain principles.

Never face enemies on two fronts at once if they can be defeated one by one. Never use bloodshed to win what can be won without war.

There were many examples in history of fighting and winning wars on two or even multiple fronts, but they always came at a corresponding cost. Westeros had only just endured a chaotic winter and was finally welcoming spring. It should not be made to suffer unnecessary pain and torment again.

To stagger the timing of the two conflicts, they needed a way to delay things, and to delay things, they would have to pay a price.

Speaking closely inside the moving carriage, the two of them hoped to more or less settle the foreign policy for the early stage of rebuilding the realm.

First, they agreed that after the tragedy at River Gate, relations between King's Landing and Pentos would inevitably fall below freezing. The other side was unlikely to send envoys again anytime soon, and if the Seven Kingdoms took the initiative to send people over, they would have to guard against possible retaliation from the Pentoshi. At the same time, the state of war between Daenerys and Volantis had not actually ended. For communication with these two places, the safest solution was to rely on neutral shipping or major merchant groups, using intermediaries to mediate between both sides and help them communicate from a distance, so as to avoid the direct conflict that would inevitably arise if they sat down face to face.

Aside from those two special cases, the other seven of the Nine Free Cities could still be approached normally.

Aegor first laid out his idea for the general tone of foreign affairs: first be tough in words, then be tough in action.

To put it plainly, foreign policy would follow two different models during the stages before and after the end of the Riverlands war.

During the Riverlands war: in the public statements issued by Daenerys's regime, they would continue insisting that Illyrio had first stolen military secrets and then resisted a lawful search, which had ultimately led to the tragedy, but in practice they would not act too aggressively. The diplomats of House Targaryen would not only make active visits and display a sincere willingness to negotiate, they would also slightly ease the previously expected tariffs and trade regulations, adopting the attitude of, "Though we cannot admit it openly, we know we were in the wrong and have decided to bleed a little to settle this matter." While negotiating and consulting over the extent of the concessions, they would also send people skilled in public relations to lobby widely and spend generously, showering real gold upon the power structures of the seven Free Cities that were not at war with them, buying the goodwill of neutral brokers and using that price to sow internal division.

As long as they could drag themselves through this most dangerous period, the Targaryen regime, once it had taken control of the Riverlands and integrated all the resources of the Seven Kingdoms, would immediately tear off its harmless mask and bare its fangs, turning aggressive in every policy. Not only would the Illyrio affair, which they had in effect conceded for the moment, be raised again to demand an apology and compensation from Pentos in the name of endangering national security, but even the issue of abolishing slavery, which had deliberately been set aside, would be loudly revived to pressure the Nine Cities. Even the "rebuilding of Valyria" that Aegor had once painted as a grand vision for Daenerys could actually be attempted, depending on the circumstances.

...

"These city-states, where slave owners and wealthy merchants meet to determine national policy and where 'elite' republicanism is the actual political system, have an inherent weakness," Aegor explained as he laid out the thinking behind his proposal. "Men of vision can never rise to the very top, and no one can swiftly implement policy with absolute authority, even if most people know it would benefit them in the long run." What benefited the enemy naturally harmed him. If asked what he feared most at the moment, it was naturally that group of slave owners and wealthy merchants who could not be persuaded, who would not yield to soft or hard tactics, and who insisted on launching a decisive war while he was campaigning in the west. "It's just like competing for Lord Commander of the Night's Watch. As long as one controls a third of the votes, no winner can ever be chosen. We do not need to persuade the city-states to abolish slavery and support Daenerys. We only need to put in a little effort to stop them from quickly reaching an internal consensus, and then we will be invincible!"

"That is a good idea, but you assume the slave owners are too foolish. If I were a slave owner in one of the Free Cities, with a slave skilled in bedchamber cries warming my bed every night, I would certainly lose sleep upon learning that a fierce abolitionist queen sat across the sea on the Iron... on the throne. If this queen sent someone to discuss diplomacy and trade, I would definitely question that envoy and insist on knowing what further stance his queen held on slavery." Tyrion shook his head again and again. "Perhaps some slave owners will be blinded by greed, or let down their guard and care only for immediate pleasure, but as long as one in a thousand decides to stand firm, the others will follow, and a trend, then a general situation, will form."

Aegor frowned and thought it over, realizing that what Tyrion said was indeed possible. "I am only proposing a general direction. If you have ideas or additions, you can of course say them."

"The subject of slavery cannot be avoided. I think that when people are sent to distribute money, they must also reassure the slave owners and tell them that there is strong opposition within the Seven Kingdoms to interfering in the internal affairs of the Free Cities, and that Daenerys has tacitly agreed under pressure to compromise with the slave owners..."

"That is probably not feasible. Even if it is only temporary restraint and retreat, once word spreads, Daenerys's image as the Breaker of Chains will collapse. She would likely lose the support of the Unsullied and the Free Company at once, those two slave-born armies upon which she relies. A little bleeding in tariffs, trade regulations, or even money and property can be suppressed as long as it does not cause immediate consequences, but matters of principle like this cannot be conceded rashly. To do so would be to abandon justice and stability."

"Daenerys losing the loyalty of the slave soldiers might not necessarily be a bad thing for you, it just depends on whether you have that intention." Tyrion gave him a meaningful look, then shook his head as if to throw the thought away. He was here to accomplish great things and leave his name in history, not to persuade his friend to become a treacherous minister and rebel. "You have overlooked the timing. I will send a diplomatic mission east across the Narrow Sea, and you will lead the army west to campaign in the Riverlands. News will take weeks to travel between the two. That means no matter what happens in the Free Cities, it is unlikely to affect the morale of the army you command before the western campaign is decided, so long as you can fight a quick war, as you boasted."

"As for the later damage to Her Grace's image once word spreads that she intends to compromise and negotiate with the slave owners, there is actually a way to remedy it. I will carefully control the degree of it, enough to let the slave owners entertain the illusion that Daenerys has given up abolishing slavery, but without signing any treaty or document with legal force that might later be contradicted. When the time comes, the royal government need only firmly deny the truth of these rumors and announce that my diplomatic strategy violated the instructions of Daenerys and the Hand, using that as a reason to strip me of everything beyond the office of Master of Coin and recall and replace a number of diplomatic personnel. As for the resulting decline in international reputation, no matter what, it would still be better than fighting a war on two fronts."

This truly was nothing more than a stopgap measure to buy time. If the final strategy for pacifying the Seven Kingdoms failed to proceed smoothly, then they would be left in a deadlock with no way out. But fortunately, with such an overwhelming advantage in weaponry, the war in the Riverlands could definitely be concluded quickly, allowing him to return in time to the eastern front and deal with the mess on both sides of the Narrow Sea.

Aegor pondered for a moment, then finally gritted his teeth. The current situation was that Illyrio had set him up at the cost of his own life, and now he needed his friends to help clean up the mess. This was remedial action, and there would be no perfect ending. To try to devise a flawless plan was wishful thinking. Instead of giving blind orders just before departing, it was better to delegate power to capable hands.

The Little Imp had never let him down.

"Since I have entrusted this matter to you, it means I trust your judgment and ability. I will only tell you truthfully the general direction, the likely timetable for the western campaign, and the plans that follow. As for how you coordinate matters in the east, be bold, adapt to circumstances, and decide together with Daenerys!"

...

After a long conversation and discussion, the carriage arrived at the temporary residence of the Hand. It slowly passed through the main gate under the busy welcome of guards and servants. Aegor was the first to step down.

He was about to call for someone to fetch Myrcella, but seeing the girl already waiting for him in the spacious courtyard, he waved to her. "Maeve, come inside with me to receive our guest!"

Tyrion carefully jumped down from the carriage step and was just about to complain that the temporary residence of the Hand was a little too shabby and run-down, when he looked up and saw the blonde girl walking toward him. The moment she saw him, her eyes widened and her steps slowed. Both of them froze where they stood.

(To be continued.)